Sugarcane Productivity Simulation Under Different Scenarios by DSSAT/CANEGRO Model in the Western São Paulo

Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) is one of the most important crops in Brazil and its growth and development can be simulated through process-based models. The current study evaluated a model based on the decision support system for the transfer of Agrotechnology DSSAT/CANEGRO to simulate the sugarcane crop productivity in the western region of São Paulo. The DSSAT/CANEGRO model was calibrated using published yield parameters from a selection of five Brazilian sugarcane cultivars, while sugarcane yield data (tons of stems per hectare) from commercial land were used as benchmark data. Other modeling inputs were derived from the primary regional cultivar. The root mean square error (RMSE), Willmott agreement index (d), and mean absolute error (MAE) were used as performance metrics. The DSSAT/CANEGRO model resulted in a good RMSE performance. The productivity estimates were better for the cultivars SP791010 and RB835486, with RMSE equal to 2.27 and 4.48 Mg ha-1, respectively. The comparison between model-based estimates and observed data produced d values in the range from 0.86 to 0.99, and MAE values in the range of 1.84 to 4.22 Mg ha-1.