Modelling the Perspective of Agricultural Land Use Trajectories in a Peri-Urban District of Ghana

Aim: To analyze the perspectives of agriculture land use trajectories for 10 years due to peri-urbanization in the Bosomtwe district of the Asante region, Ghana.
Methodology: Using a triangulation of qualitative and quantitative Design, 270 household respondents were proportionately sampled from 14 selected communities on the basis of population, in the district, for questionnaires administration to collect data. The data was subjected to the Pearson’s Chi-square, Nigelkerk R and Cramer’s V, and step-wise binary logistic regression analyses embedded in the SPSS V.16.
Results: A chi-square test of association between the peri-urban land uses and agriculture land use conversions revealed that at a significant level of .05, the Pearson Chi-square value of χ2 =17.355, 4 degree of freedom, was significant at a p-value of p < .05. The logistic regression model reported that at confidence intervals of (CIs) of 1.358 ≤ CI ≤ 4.517 and 1.039 ≤ CI ≤ 11.486 for the two main predictors of ground rent per plot and criteria in determining land prices, the β(EXP) > 1, rang from 2.477 to 3.455. This implies the odds of respondents being more likely to convert their land from arable uses to other uses given the appropriate grounds rent on the land market, is about 3 times whenever any of the two main predictor variables increase by one unit.
Conclusion: The increasing rate of peri-urbanization in the district is as a result of increasing demand for residential and commercial land uses at the expense of agricultural land uses. This has resulted in substantial conversion of prime agricultural lands into other land uses particularly residential and commercial. These outcomes have perceived negative implications on food security in the district. The District assembly’s land use schemes should be monitored strictly to regulate physical development on agricultural lands.